The problem with outsourcing certainty

The world seems increasingly uncertain.

Lots of changes coming from Artificial Intelligence (AI), but we don’t really know where that’ll go.

Will I lose my job? Will thousands of people suddenly be unemployed? And what happens when a big AI company “wins” the race for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and they control it?

Then there’s the international turmoil.

Wars, tariffs and unpredictable world leaders, dismantling the trust and international relationships that have been built over many years.

Can we still rely on the allies we used to before?

And what about all the health systems around the world?

Will they collapse? Will I be able to get the healthcare I need? Will I be able to afford it?

Oh, and of course, there is the internet too which is a complete mess.

The real currency of the internet is clicks, likes and shares. It doesn’t really matter what the message is… or even if it’s true!

I listen to Sam Harris (Neuroscientist and Philosopher) who was describing his experience of being taken out of context and going viral recently.

He sometimes engages in philosophical debate, where it’s common to raise… let’s call them “non mainstream” ideas. Nobody gets upset, because it’s philosophy and the people listening are aware of that context.

In an interview, he gave an example where in a philosophical debate, it might be common for people to play around with arguments like “People should eat babies. They are full of protein and nutrients, why wouldn’t we do that?”

Of course, if you said this on the street people would be horrified… it’s not the right setting for that sort of discussion.

Someone took his soundbite and used the video to say that “Sam Harris says it’s OK to eat babies.”

So that’s the sort of crap we’re dealing with on the internet.

On the internet, the uncertainty exists around what is true. Can I trust this article? Is this email a scam? Who knows?

Can I trust our institutions like banks and governments?

We’re not so sure about that now, either. After all, we see corruption and collapse everywhere.

Are we craving certainty a little too much?

Feeling uncertain doesn’t feel good.

David Rock’s SCARF motivation model lists “Certainty” as a motivator. This means people are likely motivated to want to move away from uncertainty, and towards certainty.

Makes sense, right?

That’s why we plan and prepare. It’s why we rehearse and practice – so that we can be more certain of a positive outcome.

But I’m starting to think that many people have a craving for too much certainty.

People want to be sure that they have a great experience, that they get value for money, that they’ll enjoy themselves and that they won’t waste their time.

All of these things sound very logical. Who wouldn’t want those things to be true?

Let’s take a simple car journey as an example.

Many people punch their destination into Google maps when driving somewhere. Especially when we either don’t know where the place is exactly, or when we have a specific need to be there on time.

We trust that Google will take us on the right path, to get there at the right time. And over time, we start to rely on Google and stop making our own decisions and choices.

I remember the “good old” days where if we needed to be somewhere, we’d leave early to make sure we were on time. No algorithm was available to help us – we had to rely on our own knowledge, intuition and experience, and perhaps the experience of others.

We might travel along our chosen route (which might not be the fastest) simply because it was the best way we knew, until someone told us about a “shortcut”. Yes, we had this thing called a “road map”, but that didn’t tell you how long a journey would take.

These days, it’s more likely that we want to know exactly how long our journey will take, and the optimal way to get there. We want certainty that we’ll be there on time.

But the certainty is coming from a different source.

Internal Certainty vs External Certainty

I think professional athletes are great examples of utilising Internal Certainty.

Internal Certainty is the certainty you gain from being prepared and gaining knowledge, capability and skills.

We gain Internal Certainty by doing the work – which might mean planning, thinking, training, rehearsing or studying.

It’s the type of certainty where we still don’t know exactly what’s going to happen, but we feel more confident that whatever happens, we’re well-positioned to deal with it.

An athlete goes into their chosen sporting event without knowing exactly how the game will play out.

But they know that they have done the training and preparation to achieve the strength, dexterity, speed or precision that will make them more likely to win.

It doesn’t mean they will win, of course. There’s still uncertainty about that part.

External Certainty is easier, but more fragile

External Certainty is the certainty we gain from sources that are outside of us.

Google Maps gives us External Certainty because it tells us the best way to go. We’ve put no effort into the decision – we rely on it almost completely to get us to our destination.

We’re also relying on our car for External Certainty. We need it to work to get us there.

In this car-driving example, how could we improve our Internal Certainty?

Well, we might make sure we know how to change our spare tyre, and make sure the spare tyre is in working order. Or, we might leave a little earlier to make sure we have some extra time if something goes wrong.

Are we starting to rely too much on External Certainty?

Advancements in society over time have meant that it’s much easier to rely on External Certainty than ever before, and this seems to only be increasing.

I know I’m referring to Google Maps a lot here, and I’m not sure why… but it seems relevant.

Apparently Google Maps will soon be introducing AI features to be able to better interrogate your surroundings in more detail and with greater accuracy.

For example: “Take me to the restaurant with the best Pad Thai in this area.”

On the surface, this seems like a great idea. This has the potential to dramatically increase our certainty.

It makes it more likely that we’ll enjoy our meal, assuming we like Pad Thai.

It means we’re not going to go to a crappy restaurant. We’ll probably have a nice time.

Now, harking back to the old days again – many years ago, you would ask friends and family for recommendations of good places to eat.

Or you’d just go to a restaurant that you see, and try it out, without (gasp!) reading reviews from other people on the internet telling you how good it is.

Now some people reading might say “Well if you have reviews to look at, why wouldn’t you use that information? You’d be stupid to ignore them.”

And it’s an interesting point. Because looking at reviews (or asking Google Maps AI) will increase the chance that you’ll enjoy your meal because you’ll reduce the risk of a poor experience.

But I think it’s also conditioning humans to have far less tolerance for hardship or uncertainty than we potentially had in the past.

And it’s reducing the need for people to speak to each other, and to trust each other.

Is this just a “back in my day, it was better” thing?

Well maybe a little, but that’s not all of it.

I grew up in a time before mobile phones and the internet. I got my first email account in 1997, when I was 17 years old.

I even met a girlfriend online (before online dating was even a thing) via a random joke email chain that was spammed across the internet at the time.

I also studied Computer Science and started my career developing software. I worked in the IT industry for many years in consulting, project and management roles, and I like to remain aware of the latest technologies and trends going around at the moment.

I also occasionally deliver some AI Fundamentals training for a partner organisation I work with.

All that is to say, I’m not anti-technology or progress… unless it’s damaging the human race.

What I think is happening (and has been happening for a while) is that our reliance on technological advancements has made us less self-sufficient and resilient as a society.

People are seeking outsource certainty and avoiding personal capability building.

So what does this mean for leaders, and the people we lead?

This post is a little different from many of the others I’ve written previously.

It doesn’t really have advice or models, or things you should try out.

This is really an article to provoke you to think about this topic, and stay alert to the impact that this craving for certainty might have.

Many people are looking for a quick fix – a way to outsource their thinking and to increase certainty over the outcome.

It happens everywhere – in healthcare (can I take a pill instead of exercising?), in what we watch (“the algorithm” will feed me my next show) and in the things we buy (if I buy this leadership book, maybe it will make me feel more confident).

Let’s imagine you’re going to have to initiate a difficult conversation with an employee you lead.

You’re dreading it. In fact, you’ve been putting it off for weeks, because you’re not sure about how the other person will react (or more likely, you’re certain they’ll react badly).

You want certainty. The certainty that it’s going to be OK, and that the outcome of the discussion will be positive.

If you seek to address this by finding External Certainty, you might ask ChatGPT what you should do, or search the internet. You might look to see if other managers have similar problems (it’s not just me!).

But the reality is, this will not provide the certainty you crave.

ChatGPT doesn’t know how your employee will react. And it sure as hell ain’t going to be able to deal with this situation for you. You have to deal with it yourself.

You will never be certain of the outcome of the conversation.

Knowing this is a powerful thing.

But increasing your Internal Certainty will help you feel more confident and capable.

What would that look like in this situation?

It might mean rehearsing what you’re going to say. Visualising remaining calm, even if they get angry. Understanding your intentions, and doing your best to make sure they’re positive. Knowing your values, and what you stand for, and engaging in the conversation in a way that’s authentic to you.

Yes, you can use external sources to provide you with knowledge. But the knowledge is nothing if you can’t put it into action, and that comes by trying things out.

Ultimately, you’re looking for the Internal Certainty that you’re attempting to do the right thing, and that you have positive intentions.

And that’s pretty much all the certainty you’re ever going to get.

So really, it’s just time to do the work.